Latest Research: 2024 Q3 Market Microscope 9/30/24
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Research
Our most recent, trustworthy graphs made by our team, so that you know what you’re reading is true and un-influenced by outside sources.
9/30/24
2024 // Q3 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
9/30/24
9/30/24
Monthly Index Report // 9.30.2024
Monthly Index Reports
9/30/24
8/31/24
Monthly Index Report // 8.31.2024
Monthly Index Reports
8/31/24
7/31/24
Monthly Index Report // 7.31.2024
Monthly Index Reports
7/31/24
6/30/24
2024 Q2 Facts & Figures
Facts & Figures
6/30/24
In US equities, higher momentum stocks have outperformed the broader market by a huge margin over the past year. The New York Federal Reserve’s survey of consumer expectations shows that an increasing number of Americans have a positive outlook about their personal finances over the year ahead. However, this attitude seems to be in conflict with data showing a recent uptick in consumer loan delinquency rates. Credit spreads for both investment-grade and high yield Corporate bonds are at cyclical lows.
2024 Q2 Facts & Figures Pdf6/30/24
2024 // Q2 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
6/30/24
6/30/24
Monthly Index Report // 6.30.2024
Monthly Index Reports
6/30/24
6/30/24
2024 Q2 Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
6/30/24
The US stock market was unusually calm in the first half of 2024. For the most part the S&P 500 saw a steady grind upward in the first 6 months of the year, save for a brief 5% drawdown in April. We have to go back more than a year (to February 2023) to find the last time the index experienced a single-day loss of -2% or more. The market’s “fear gauge” (the VIX index) ended the quarter at its lowest point since the beginning of the Covid pandemic in 2020. Even the uncertainty of the upcoming election failed to disrupt the market, with the first half of 2024 marking the best start to a Presidential election year in nearly half a century.
2024 Q2 Market Microscope Pdf5/31/24
Monthly Index Report // 5.31.2024
Monthly Index Reports
5/31/24
4/30/24
Monthly Index Report // 4.30.2024
Monthly Index Reports
4/30/24
3/31/24
2024 Q1 Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
3/31/24
Some investors speak as if a new all-time high for the stock market means “we’re due” for a pullback, but a look at the historical data suggests that is not the case. The S&P 500 was up in the year following a new peak almost exactly as often as it was up for all 1-year periods (positive 1-year return 72% of the time after a peak versus 74% of the time for all months). The average return for the 1-year period following an all-time high was also very similar to the average return for all 1-year periods.
2024 Q1 Market Microscope Pdf3/31/24
2024 Q1 Facts & Figures
Facts & Figures
3/31/24
Large Growth stocks led the US market once again in the first quarter. Assets held in US Government and Prime money market funds have grown to roughly $6.4 trillion, which is double the amount from 5 years ago. The Federal Reserve has trimmed $1.5 trillion off its balance sheet since peaking at nearly $9 trillion. US Consumer sentiment surged upward in Q1, reaching its highest level in 3 years. The US shopping center vacancy rate has steadily declined from its recent pandemic peak, and it is now at its lowest level since 2007.
2024 Q1 Facts & Figures Pdf3/31/24
2024 // Q1 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
3/31/24
3/31/24
Monthly Index Report // 3.31.2024
Monthly Index Reports
3/31/24
2/29/24
Monthly Index Report // 2.29.2024
Monthly Index Reports
2/29/24
1/31/24
Monthly Index Report // 1.31.2024
Monthly Index Reports
1/31/24
12/31/23
2023 Q4 Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
12/31/23
US large cap Tech companies have dominated both the rest of the S&P 500 and their non-US Tech peers over the past decade. The S&P 500 Technology sector was up an annualized 20.8% over the past 10 years, compared to just 12% for the S&P 500 index as a whole. The Tech sector has grown from 18.7% of the index to nearly 29% in that time.
2023 Q4 Market Microscope Pdf12/31/23
2023 Q4 Facts & Figures
Facts & Figures
12/31/23
Bonds surged to close out the year – the Bloomberg Aggregate Index gained over 9% in the final 10 weeks of 2023. The most recent Federal Reserve “dot plot” suggested that 3 rate cuts are coming in 2024. The average US mortgage rate has fallen by more than 1% since peaking at 7.8%. Finally, the number of job openings in the US has been declining but remains well above the number of new hires.
2023 Q4 Facts & Figures Pdf12/31/23
2023 // Q4 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
12/31/23
12/31/23
Monthly Index Report // 12.31.2023
Monthly Index Reports
12/31/23
11/30/23
Monthly Index Report // 11.30.2023
Monthly Index Reports
11/30/23
10/31/23
Monthly Index Report // 10.31.2023
Monthly Index Reports
10/31/23
9/30/23
2023 3Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
9/30/23
While China is an important trade partner for the US, their share of US imported goods is smaller than many people might think. China’s share of US imports peaked at 21.6% in 2017 but has declined sharply in the years since. In the first half of 2023, China was just the third-largest provider of goods to the US, behind both Mexico and Canada. They are in fourth place if one considers Europe to be a single trading bloc.
2023 3Q Market Microscope Pdf9/30/23
Facts & Figures Q3 2023
Facts & Figures
9/30/23
US stocks were down across all style boxes in the third quarter, with small growth down the most. By the end of the third quarter, Apple’s market cap was nearly equal to the market cap of the entire Russell 2000 Index combined. The rate of inflation has dropped below 4%, with the majority of new inflation coming from the rising cost of shelter. The absolute dollar amount of interest paid on government debt has risen sharply, though when viewed as a share of GDP it is still well below the level of the 1980s. Coal’s share of US electricity generation has fallen dramatically over the past 15 years, while the portion coming from natural gas has risen to over 40%.
Facts & Figures Q3 2023 Pdf9/30/23
2023 // Q3 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
9/30/23
9/30/23
Monthly Index Report // 9.30.2023
Monthly Index Reports
9/30/23
8/31/23
Monthly Index Report // 8.31.2023
Monthly Index Reports
8/31/23
7/31/23
Monthly Index Report // 7.31.2023
Monthly Index Reports
7/31/23
6/30/23
Market Facts & Figures from Q2 2023
Facts & Figures
6/30/23
Large growth stocks dominated the US market again in the second quarter, as the 5-year outperformance of large caps relative to small caps has reached its widest margin since the Tech Bubble. The US job market remains hot, with total US non-farm employees now above the pre-pandemic peak. US construction spending on manufacturing has surged over the past 18 months, driven in part by increased spending on infrastructure and the trend of companies “re-shoring” operations. Finally, S&P 500 companies bought back close to $1 trillion of their own stock in 2022.
Market Facts & Figures from Q2 2023 Pdf6/30/23
2023 // Q2 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
6/30/23
6/30/23
2023 2Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
6/30/23
The S&P 500 was up close to 17% in the first half of the year, a result that was heavily influenced by a small group of very large companies. Just 7 large stocks – Facebook (Meta), Amazon, Apple, NVIDIA, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft and Tesla - contributed approximately 11.6% of the benchmark’s 16.9% return. Those 7 companies represented about 20% of the index at the start of the year, they now compose over 27% of the index. The outperformance of the largest companies is also reflected in the larger-than-typical return spread between the traditional cap-weighted S&P 500 Index and the equally-weighted version of the index.
2023 2Q Market Microscope Pdf6/30/23
Monthly Index Report // 6.30.2023
Monthly Index Reports
6/30/23
5/31/23
Monthly Index Report // 5.31.2023
Monthly Index Reports
5/31/23
4/30/23
Monthly Index Report // 4.30.2023
Monthly Index Reports
4/30/23
3/31/23
2023 1Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
3/31/23
A review of nearly 100 years of stock return data found that in terms of US large cap stock performance, the first few years of the 2020s have actually not been all that unusual compared to other decades.
2023 1Q Market Microscope Pdf3/31/23
Market Facts & Figures from Q1 2023
Facts & Figures
3/31/23
Growth stocks outperformed by a wide margin to open the new year. Value indexes were weighed down by weakness in bank stocks after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. One of the pressures facing regional banks is competition for deposits, as money market funds currently offer a much more attractive yield. Inflation remains elevated but has been steadily declining since mid-2022.
Market Facts & Figures from Q1 2023 Pdf3/31/23
2023 // Q1 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
3/31/23
3/31/23
Monthly Index Report // 3.31.2023
Monthly Index Reports
3/31/23
2/28/23
Monthly Index Report // 2.28.2023
Monthly Index Reports
2/28/23
1/31/23
Monthly Index Report // 1.31.2023
Monthly Index Reports
1/31/23
12/31/22
2022 4Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
12/31/22
A look at the history of the S&P 500 Price Index shows that the odds the stock market will be up or down one year from now are about the same regardless of whether the market today is at a peak or in decline. In addition, the average future 1-year return is also about the same across different types of markets, except for when the market is currently at “bear market” status – in that case, the average future return is noticeably higher.
2022 4Q Market Microscope Pdf12/31/22
Market Facts & Figures from Q4 2022
Facts & Figures
12/31/22
Value beat Growth by a wide margin to close out 2022. It was a rough year for a lot of high-flying growth stocks, particularly the FAANGs and Tesla. The OECD’s Leading Indicator index continues to trend downward, a possible sign of trouble ahead. For the first time in years, the yield on long-term bonds is well above the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The US Dollar weakened in November and December, aiding the return of non-US stocks.
Market Facts & Figures from Q4 2022 Pdf12/31/22
2022 // Q4 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
12/31/22
12/31/22
Monthly Index Report // 12.31.2022
Monthly Index Reports
12/31/22
11/30/22
Monthly Index Report // 11.30.2022
Monthly Index Reports
11/30/22
10/31/22
Monthly Index Report // 10.31.2022
Monthly Index Reports
10/31/22
9/30/22
2022 3Q Market Microscope CPI
Market Microscopes
9/30/22
Headline CPI contains both “sticky” components (those whose prices change more infrequently, which account for about 70% of CPI) and “flexible” components (those whose prices tend to fluctuate more rapidly and account for the other 30% of CPI). Some flexible components of CPI, such as the price of fuel and new and used vehicles, have started to see slowing inflation. However, the rate of inflation on some stickier components like rent and food prices has thus far continued to rise.
2022 3Q Market Microscope CPI Pdf9/30/22
2022 3Q Market Microscope Bear Market
Market Microscopes
9/30/22
While investors naturally tend towards fear when they hear the phrase “bear market,” historically this has represented a good time to buy. Measured from the date the S&P 500 first reached “bear market” status (down -20%), the average return of the S&P 500 Index over the following year was 19.5%. The average annualized 3-year return from that point was 10.6%.
2022 3Q Market Microscope Bear Market Pdf9/30/22
Market Facts & Figures from Q3 2022
Facts & Figures
9/30/22
Growth outperformed value in the third quarter, but value has still outperformed growth by a wide margin since the start of 2021. After rising significantly in the first half of the year, the price of oil had made almost a full round-trip back to where it started by the end of the third quarter. The price of natural gas has also fallen dramatically after surging due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Job openings have far outpaced new hires over the past year.
Market Facts & Figures from Q3 2022 Pdf9/30/22
2022 // Q3 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
9/30/22
9/30/22
Monthly Index Report // 9.30.2022
Monthly Index Reports
9/30/22
8/31/22
Monthly Index Report // 8.31.2022
Monthly Index Reports
8/31/22
7/31/22
Monthly Index Report // 7.31.2022
Monthly Index Reports
7/31/22
6/30/22
2022 2Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
6/30/22
Stocks and bonds were both down at the same time in each of the first two quarters of 2022, which is a scenario that investors have not had to deal with very often over the past 50 years. The current global economic instability exacerbated by the Russian Ukraine war, both rising inflation & interest rates left US investors with nowhere to hide in the first half of the year.
2022 2Q Market Microscope Pdf6/30/22
Market Facts & Figures from Q2 2022
Facts & Figures
6/30/22
Value stocks led growth by a comfortable margin as the market declined in the second quarter. As the US stock market entered “bear market” status, the price of gold was flat, while Bitcoin dropped by roughly -57% in the first half of the year. High inflation has contributed to US consumer sentiment reaching its lowest point of the past two decades, however bond market investors are signaling that expectations for future inflation have begun to decline.
Market Facts & Figures from Q2 2022 Pdf6/30/22
2022 // Q2 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
6/30/22
6/30/22
Monthly Index Report // 6.30.2022
Monthly Index Reports
6/30/22
5/31/22
Monthly Index Report // 5.31.2022
Monthly Index Reports
5/31/22
4/30/22
Monthly Index Report // 4.30.2022
Monthly Index Reports
4/30/22
3/31/22
2022 1Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
3/31/22
The rolling 1-year return of the Bloomberg Aggregate index fell below -4% at the end of the first quarter, marking the index’s worst 1-year return in over 40 years. Long US Treasuries have declined nearly -15% since the start of 2021. At the end of Q1, portions of the longer-end of the US yield curve had become inverted. The US Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds Rate in March, and the market is currently expecting 5-8 more rate increases by the end of 2023.
2022 1Q Market Microscope Pdf3/31/22
Market Facts & Figures from Q1 2022
Facts & Figures
3/31/22
Value outperformed Growth by a wide margin in the first quarter, though Growth regained some ground in the second half of March. The average interest rate on new mortgages has been on the rise, crossing over the 4.5% mark by the end of the quarter. Among S&P 500 companies, the amount of money spent on stock buybacks reached a new annual peak in 2021, however when viewed as a share of operating earnings the amount of money allocated to buybacks has been fairly steady since 2014.
Market Facts & Figures from Q1 2022 Pdf3/31/22
2022 // Q1 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
3/31/22
3/31/22
Monthly Index Report // 3.31.2022
Monthly Index Reports
3/31/22
2/28/22
Monthly Index Report // 2.28.2022
Monthly Index Reports
2/28/22
1/31/22
2021 // Q4 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
1/31/22
1/31/22
Monthly Index Report // 1.31.2022
Monthly Index Reports
1/31/22
12/31/21
2021 4Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
12/31/21
Since 1970, the current trailing-twelve-month P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has not been a great predictor of the S&P’s return over the following year. However, when we expand the future timeframe to 10 years we see a strong correlation between a high current P/E multiple and weaker returns over the next decade. When the index’s P/E ratio is over 25X, the average annualized return for the next 10 years is only 5.1%. As of the end of 2021, the S&P 500 had a P/E multiple of roughly 29X.
2021 4Q Market Microscope Pdf12/31/21
Market Facts & Figures from Q4 2021
Facts & Figures
12/31/21
Looking back over two tumultuous years of a global pandemic, investors have gotten strong returns from equities in the Covid era (provided they remained invested the entire time). The rate of people quitting their current job touched 3% for the first time in the fourth quarter. Government debt as a percentage of GDP has spiked after multiple rounds of pandemic stimulus, however household debt as a share of GDP has been shrinking since the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The amount of coal burned to generate electricity in the US has been in steep decline since peaking in 2007.
Market Facts & Figures from Q4 2021 Pdf12/31/21
Monthly Index Report // 12.31.2021
Monthly Index Reports
12/31/21
11/30/21
Monthly Index Report // 11.30.2021
Monthly Index Reports
11/30/21
10/31/21
Monthly Index Report // 10.31.2021
Monthly Index Reports
10/31/21
9/30/21
Monthly Index Report // 9.30.2021
Monthly Index Reports
9/30/21
9/30/21
2021 3Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
9/30/21
Can Yields go much lower? The Yield Curve for U.S. Treasury bonds is actually higher than those in other developed economies (green dashed lines). In nominal terms (after inflation is factored in), U.S. government bonds have dipped into negative yield territory.
2021 3Q Market Microscope Pdf9/30/21
Market Facts & Figures from Q3 2021
Facts & Figures
9/30/21
Auto-related segments of the economy have been experiencing a higher rate of inflation than the broader US market, with the used car market in particular seeing large price increases. Supply chain issues have plagued the global economy, with shipping costs up nearly 280% in 2021. Lumber prices also exploded in the second half of 2020, though they have retreated significantly since then. US job openings have surged this year, with the rate of new hires lagging far behind.
Market Facts & Figures from Q3 2021 Pdf9/30/21
2021 // Q3 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
9/30/21
8/31/21
Monthly Index Report // 8.31.2021
Monthly Index Reports
8/31/21
7/31/21
Monthly Index Report // 7.31.2021
Monthly Index Reports
7/31/21
6/30/21
2021 2Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
6/30/21
The duration of the Barclays Aggregate index has risen steadily since 2010, moving from 4.3 years to approximately 6.6 years today. At the same time, the overall coupon rate for the index has shrunk. In recent years, this combination of factors has meant that a smaller upward movement in interest rates has been enough to drive fixed income portfolios into negative return territory.
2021 2Q Market Microscope Pdf6/30/21
Market Facts & Figures from Q2 2021
Facts & Figures
6/30/21
The US manufacturing and services sector looked very strong at the end of the second quarter, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the developed world. The amount of money “sitting on the sidelines” in US government money market funds has risen substantially in the past 5 years and is now at over $4 trillion. While the number of “large” (defined as 500+ employees) US companies has grown steadily over the past 30 years, the number of US companies that are publicly-traded has actually shrunk considerably since the late 1990s.
Market Facts & Figures from Q2 2021 Pdf6/30/21
2021 // Q2 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
6/30/21
6/30/21
Monthly Index Report // 6.30.2021
Monthly Index Reports
6/30/21
5/31/21
Monthly Index Report // 5.31.2021
Monthly Index Reports
5/31/21
4/30/21
Monthly Index Report // 4.30.2021
Monthly Index Reports
4/30/21
3/31/21
2021 1Q Market Microscope
Market Microscopes
3/31/21
Small cap stocks have dominated since the market rebounded off early pandemic lows in late March 2020. In fact, the Russell 2000 beat the S&P 500 by 38.5% for the 1-year period ending 3/31/21. That represents the largest performance spread between the two benchmarks since the Russell 2000 was created over 40 years ago. History shows that when the market shifts to favor small caps, the change is often very sharp and fast.
2021 1Q Market Microscope Pdf3/31/21
Market Facts & Figures from Q1 2021
Facts & Figures
3/31/21
The market’s shift away from the large growth stocks and towards smaller, more value-oriented companies continued in the first quarter. However, S&P 500 remains top-heavy with the dominance of five mega cap growth companies. Credit spreads for both investment grade and high yield bonds have returned to their pre-pandemic lows. Suggesting investors are not as wary of an economic downturn. While unemployment remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, those employed have enjoyed continued wage growth.
2021 1Q Facts & Figures Pdf3/31/21
2021 // Q1 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
3/31/21
3/31/21
Monthly Index Report // 3.31.2021
Monthly Index Reports
3/31/21
2/28/21
Monthly Index Report // 2.28.2021
Monthly Index Reports
2/28/21
1/31/21
Monthly Index Report // 1.31.2021
Monthly Index Reports
1/31/21
12/31/20
MARKET FACTS AND FIGURES FROM Q4 2020
Facts & Figures
12/31/20
The market recovery continued in the fourth quarter. Stocks in the beaten-down Travel & Tourism sector rebounded sharply on news of an effective Covid vaccine. Small caps and Value stocks finally had their turn in the lead after a long period of outperformance by Large Caps and Growth stocks. Total employment in the US has seen a nice rebound, however there are still about 10 million fewer people working than before the pandemic hit.
Learn more Pdf12/31/20
2020 Q4 Stock Market Resurgence
Market Microscopes
12/31/20
The stock market saw a resurgence of volatility in 2020 thanks to the pandemic. The S&P 500 was up or down 1% or more on 109 days, which was the highest number since 2011. However, it was still fewer 1% days than in the previous two recessionary periods (2002 and 2007-2008).
Learn more Pdf9/30/20
2020 3Q A Relatively Small Number Of Stocks Are Propping Up The S&P 500 In 2020
Market Microscopes
9/30/20
7/1/20
2020 2Q Growth's Outperformance Versus Value Approaching "Tech Bubble" Level
Market Microscopes
7/1/20
Across the global equity markets, the outperformance of growth relative to value is at or approaching an all-time high.
Show me how! Pdf7/1/20
2020 // Q2 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
7/1/20
Global stock markets came roaring back in the second quarter, with all major categories up 14% or more.
Let's see more6/30/20
Monthly Index Report // 6.30.2020
Monthly Index Reports
6/30/20
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Let's see the graphs Pdf5/31/20
Monthly Index Report // 5.31.2020
Monthly Index Reports
5/31/20
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. The monthly index report shows how stocks have performed over the time frame of a month to 10 years.
Let's see the graphs Pdf4/1/20
2020 1Q S&P 500 Price Index Returns After a Bear Market
Market Microscopes
4/1/20
Since 1950, how has the S&P 500 Price Index performed after reaching the point of a "bear market"?
Let's see how Pdf4/1/20
Market Facts and Figures from Q1 2020
Facts & Figures
4/1/20
In the US, Larger Caps and Growth stocks outperformed Smaller Cap and Value. Lower-quality Corporate bonds greatly underperformed higher-rated issues, and the price of gold was also falling as stocks fell in March.
Let's see more Pdf4/1/20
2020 // Q1 // Market Environment
Quarterly Market Environment
4/1/20
The coronavirus pandemic left global equity markets reeling in the first quarter of 2020. The market decline was severe enough that the trailing 5-year return for some indexes turned negative.
Let's see how Pdf12/31/19
2019 4Q Growth & Value "Eras" In US Large Cap Stocks
Market Microscopes
12/31/19
6/30/19
2019 2Q Don't Be Nervous About A New All-Time Market High
Market Microscopes
6/30/19
9/30/18
2018 3Q The New "Communication Services" Sector
Market Microscopes
9/30/18
6/30/18
2018 2Q The Changing Face Of The Emerging Markets
Market Microscopes
6/30/18
3/31/18
2018 1Q WHAT HAPPENS AFTER A MARKET CORRECTION?
Market Microscopes
3/31/18
12/31/17
2017 4Q When It Comes To Size, the Bond Market is King
Market Microscopes
12/31/17
9/30/17
2017 3Q Are International Small Cap Stocks More Risky Than US Small Caps?
Market Microscopes
9/30/17
6/30/17
2017 2Q Breaking Down the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Market Microscopes
6/30/17
12/31/16
2016 4Q Don’t Be Nervous About A New All-Time Market High
Market Microscopes
12/31/16
3/31/16
2016 1Q "Tactical" OFTEN means just plain wrong
Market Microscopes
3/31/16
12/31/15
2015 4q be active where there is less competition
Market Microscopes
12/31/15
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